As anticipated in the last ETH-USD price analysis, ETH-USD found a new low yesterday as the market continued its downward path within a cryptomarket-wide bear run. After making a Double Bottom a couple of weeks ago, ETH-USD has made a vicious run for lower prices. The figure below shows the Fibonacci Retracement values for our current, post-Double-Bottom-Reversal:
Figure 1: ETH-USD, 2HR Candles, Gemini, Fibonacci Retracement Values
At the time of this article, ETH-USD is testing the first Fibonacci Retracement value at 23%. Before continuing to lower lows, it is very common to see retests of previous, significant support levels to establish the strength in the trend. The figure above shows the retracement path of the current bear run we are seeing. Before continuing to lower lows, the market likes to establish lines that were previously support values, and turn them into resistance lines:
Figure 2: ETH-USD, 2HR Candles, Gemini, Fibonacci Retracement Retests
Whether or not we make any significant upward progress with this bounce from the bottom remains to be seen. However, we have some indicators that will give us some insight into the health of this move:
Figure 3: ETH-USD, 1HR Candles, Gemini, 1HR MACD Divergence
Looking at the 1HR MACD, one of the first things that pops out is the strong divergence the market is currently seeing. Divergence occurs when the price makes a new high, but the MACD fails to accompany the high with a new high on the MACD histogram. This is usually an indication of momentum loss and can often lead traders to begin the process of position exit and entry. In our case, we are currently testing two significant levels of support:
The 23% retracement (mentioned above);
The values that established the ETH-USD market’s previous low.
At the moment, the ETH-USD markets are at the mercy of whatever BTC-USD decides to do. Given that the entire cryptomarket is experiencing a very strong bear market, any noteworthy upward price movement must be well established with plenty of consistent volume. A failure to breach these values will almost certainly lead to a retest of our current low before any further upward progress can be seen. If our current low is broken, we can expect the next significant level of support to lie in the low $100 range:
Figure 4: ETH-USD, 12HR Candles, Gemini, Next Line of Support
ETH-USD continues to make new lows as it begins to retest old support lines,
Before any significant positive price movement is seen, more buy volume needs to flow into the market to establish firm support. Otherwise, we will continue to descend.
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